Russian deals put Reliance oil core in focus at its Annual General Meeting

Reliance Industries Ltd.’s annual investor gatherings have long been a red-letter day in the Indian financial calendar, with shareholders anticipating ambitious targets, bold statements and a rare sighting of a billionaire lauded for his business acumen.

This year, though, attention is likely to be as much on the present as the future.

Shareholders will certainly be looking out for details on the much-anticipated listings of Reliance’s telecoms and retail operations, plus the prospect for outside investment into an emerging clean energy business. But the get-together takes place two days after the US doubled tariffs on India as punishment for its imports of discounted Russian oil, and Mukesh Ambani has drawn particular attention for purchases likely to have saved the company hundreds of millions this year.

Reliance has been left in a bind. Russian oil is not sanctioned, and stopping purchases in response to US pressure means rupturing an existing long-term deal with Rosneft Oil Co PJSC, giving up a strategic advantage for what is already a profitable, highly sophisticated refining business. And of course, a retreat would run counter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s defiant position.

Not shifting, however, leaves a $214 billion empire vulnerable to continued tariffs and even US sanctions and other hurdles. Nayara Energy, which runs a refinery down the road from Reliance’s sprawling Jamnagar complex on India’s western coast, was blacklisted by the European Union in July and has since faced financial and logistical challenges.

Ambani’s closely watched speech, the highlight of Friday’s proceedings, is likely to touch on geopolitical ructions — but not on Russia, a person familiar with the proceedings said. He instead will seek to focus on other businesses, including the digital operation and developments like artificial intelligence, the person said, asking not to be named as the matter is sensitive.

Reliance did not respond to emailed questions from Bloomberg.

That doesn’t mean Russia won’t loom. Senior US officials have dialed up criticism over recent days, and on Wednesday, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro again accused India of funding Russia’s “war machine.” They have not named Ambani, though they have accused “some of India’s richest families” of war profiteering — at a time when a company owned by India’s wealthiest man is the country’s single largest buyer of Russian crude.

Since the Trump administration’s campaign began, India as a whole has eased, but not ceased, purchases of Russian crude.

“Will commitments on reduction of Russian oil purchases and shifting to US sources be enough for the Trump administration, or does it expect the Indian government to crack down on its claims of profiteering?” asked Mark Linscott, senior advisor with The Asia Group. “It’s hard to know how the government can maneuver this, given how difficult it is to read the Trump administration’s objectives.”

Reliance has spent much of the past decade shifting away from its core oil and gas business and toward a greener, consumer-facing future. Its Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. telecom business revolutionized India’s smartphone ownership. The company has become the country’s largest retailer, with more than 19,000 stores, and is building the country’s most ambitious manufacturing complex for making energy transition hardware, from solar modules to batteries and electrolyzers.

Even so, the oil, gas and chemicals business funded much of that change and still accounts for well over half of annual revenue and two-fifths of profit, as measured by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. The core refining contribution was surpassed only recently, by the digital services arm.

A 10-year oil-purchase deal with Rosneft that came into effect earlier this year has helped. Credit ratings agency ICRA estimates India saved $3.8 billion in the fiscal year 2025 from Russian oil deals. Bloomberg calculations, based on average import prices and Reliance’s imports in the first six months of the year, suggest savings in the region of $571 million for that period — before considering changes to freight and insurance costs.

“I imagine there will be a lot of questions,” said Rachel Ziemba, an analyst who researches macroeconomic risks at the Center for a New American Security in Washington. “Its outlook will become more clouded ahead, with more compliance. Reliance could face more political taxation pressure.”

Reliance has in the past shown flexibility to seize commercial advantages — in large part thanks to Jamnagar, the world’s largest refining complex and one of the most advanced, with the capability to process the dirtiest of the crudes. In 2012, the company signed a 15-year deal to buy up to 400,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude, known to be extra-heavy and waxy. Sanctions put paid to the trade — until it won a waiver from the Biden administration. That stopped in May.

Reliance is focused on competitively priced crude and has also been exploring new partnerships in West Africa, the Middle East and the US, the person familiar with proceedings said. Earlier this week, the company purchased 2 million barrels of US crude for loading in October — a move that could be read as a modest olive branch.

“Mukesh Ambani is known to act and not react,” said Deven Choksey, managing director at wealth management firm DRChoksey FinServ Pvt., which holds positions in Reliance in its actively managed portfolios. The annual meeting, he added, would focus on Jio, renewables and additional outside investment.

“They will refrain from making any big announcement on oil and gas,” he added. “In that field, they will continue to work calmly amid this tariff noise.”