Trade war: Trump starts with China and then hits many in the world

When Donald Trump first slapped tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, the move was pitched as a long-overdue fix to decades of “unfair trade.” To Trump's mind, the idea was simple: take on Beijing, shrink America’s trade deficit, and bring back factory jobs. But as his second term unfolds, one lesson is becoming clear, 'what begins with China rarely stays there.'

The latest example came this week, when the Trump administration announced the end of the long-standing “de minimis” exemption, which had allowed Americans to receive packages under $800 duty-free. What started as a targeted strike on small parcels from China and Hong Kong will now apply to shipments from every country. From August 29, the US Customs and Border Protection started levying full duties on all parcel imports.

This is reminiscent of his initial trade war moves, when he first slapped his tariffs on 'big foe' China, and then on everyone else.

In doing this, Trump may've just repeated a pattern: He first swings his wrecking ball at whoever he perceives as the big enemy, and then goes scattershot and hits one and many.

Also Read: Trump tariffs ruled 'illegal' by court: What comes next as POTUS calls it 'total disaster'

De minimis: What this is all about
Before Trump's move, that specific exemption had fueled a boom in cross-border e-commerce. US consumers snapped up $12 dresses and cheap kitchen gadgets on platforms like Temu and Shein duty free, so long as orders stayed below the $800 threshold. In fiscal 2024 alone, 1.36 billion packages worth $64.6 billion came in under de minimis.

China accounted for nearly three-quarters of those shipments last year, followed by Canada, Mexico, the UK, South Korea, India, Vietnam and Thailand, according to CBP data and logistics firms.

For e-commerce players, the end of de minimis is a seismic shift. Companies that built their US strategy around the exemption now face higher costs, while consumers may see prices rise on everything from fast fashion to household goods. And the policy is not just aimed at China -- it sweeps in Britain, the EU, Canada, Brazil, India and beyond.

Familiar playbook
This escalation follows a familiar pattern. Trump’s first trade war began with steel and solar panels, expanded to sweeping duties on Chinese imports, and then spread to Europe, Canada and India. Now, even the small-package loophole, once an obscure corner of trade policy, is gone.

In this, there is a clear message for America's trade partners -- when Washington hits China, it doesn't take long before it hits others. For Trump, broadening tariffs to India, Europe and beyond reflects a larger ambition -- rewriting the rules of globalization.

India's tariff troubles
The friction comes at a sensitive moment for India-US ties. During the Cold War, India leaned on Moscow for weapons while Pakistan relied on American arms. In recent decades, those alignments flipped: New Delhi now buys more from the US and its allies, while Islamabad sources heavily from China.

Cultural and economic bonds between India and the US also deepened, from the Indian diaspora in Silicon Valley to academic and business partnerships.

The strategically cultivated partnership is now under strain. Trump slapped a 25% tariff on Indian exports, later doubling it to 50% in what he said was a response to New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil. "I don’t care what India does with Russia,” Trump said. “They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.”

In reality though, India is among the world’s fastest-growing economies, as further affirmed by the latest Q1 GDP print that is a five-quarter high.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro went further, accusing India of becoming an “oil money laundromat for the Kremlin” by importing cheap Russian crude, refining it, and selling fuels abroad. He branded the practice “strategic freeloading,” arguing that while Washington arms Ukraine, “India bankrolls Russia even as it slaps some of the world’s highest tariffs on American goods.”

New Delhi dismissed the charges as “unjustified and unreasonable,” insisting it would act in line with its national interests.

Also Read: India's 'dead economy' delivers GDP shock to Trump

BRICS and beyond
India’s role in BRICS has added more fuel. Trump has imposed unusually steep tariffs on the bloc’s members compared to other countries -- China faces threats of duties as high as 200–300%, Brazil and India have been hit with 50%, and South Africa is also facing elevated rates. Russia, meanwhile, has oscillated between sanctions and tentative peace talks. Recently, Trump even threatened “economic war” if Vladimir Putin resisted negotiations with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Trump has accused BRICS of pursuing “anti-American” policies and warned of an additional 10% levy on nations backing initiatives like a BRICS currency or payment system -- moves he claims are designed to undermine the US dollar.

The Quad under pressure
For Washington, the Quad -- a partnership of the US, India, Japan and Australia -- was supposed to strengthen Indo-Pacific security and offer an economic counterweight to China. But tariff disputes are now bleeding into diplomacy.

Japan’s top trade negotiator recently cancelled a US trip over tariff disagreements, while Indian officials say they are relying on dialogue to address new duties of up to 50%. Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trip to Japan has taken on added importance.

Tokyo and New Delhi are deepening economic ties, with Japanese broadcaster NHK reporting plans by Japanese firms to invest up to ¥10 trillion ($68 billion) in India over the next decade. Suzuki alone has pledged nearly $8 billion over the next five to six years. During a visit to a Suzuki plant, Modi described the two nations as “made for each other.”

Meanwhile, Indian trade minister Piyush Goyal has signaled that New Delhi is fast-tracking the second phase of its trade pact with Australia -- another Quad partner.

The bigger picture
Trump’s tariff strategy has outgrown its original China focus. It is now a blunt instrument of global leverage, wielded against allies, rivals and middle powers alike.

What began as a fight with Beijing has become something larger. A new normal in which America pulls the rest of the world into its trade disputes, one tariff announcement at a time.