Gold price prediction today: Gold rates have shown considerable volatility recently, without establishing a definitive trend in either direction. International developments, particularly the trade tariff decisions by Donald Trump and ongoing geopolitical tensions, continue to influence daily gold prices. Given these unpredictable circumstances, investors face uncertainty about their investment strategies. What’s the outlook on gold prices in the near term? Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views:
Gold Performance:
Following a weekly loss of 2.02% in the week ending May 30, spot gold prices are sharply higher this week due to renewed safe haven demand as US-China and other geopolitical concerns come to the fore.
On Monday, China accused the US of violating the US-China trade truce as the US imposed further chip technology curbs. Last week, the US said that it will revoke visas for Chinese students who relate to the Chinese Communist Party or are studying in critical fields. The US Administration also barred the export of critical US jet engine parts and technology to China. It plans to broaden restrictions on China’s tech sector with new regulations to capture subsidiaries of companies under US curbs as well.
China's slow approval for rare earth exports is being cited as the cause behind US's actions against China.
Gold Data roundup:
US data released Monday were slightly weaker than expected. ISM manufacturing came in at 48.50 Vs the forecast of 49.50 as the manufacturing sector contracted for the third straight month on tariff uncertainties. ISM's Import component slumped to a 16-year low, while the export gauge fell to the lowest level in five years. Contraction spending in April contracted by 0.4% as against the forecast of a 0.2% expansion.
The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI (May) at 49.40 matched the estimate in its final reading, while the UK's manufacturing PMI at 46.40 beat the estimate of 45.10.
Gold ETF:
Total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 88.508Moz as of May 30. Holdings recorded first weekly inflow after five straight weeks of outflows as holdings are up 6.82% YTD.
Upcoming data and events:
The European Central Bank will deliver its monetary policy on June 5 wherein the Central Bank is expected to cut the key rates by 25 bps-- its eighth rate cut since the Bank embarked on its rate cutting spree in June 2024.
Major US data to be released ahead in this week include JOLTs job openings (April), ADP employment change (May), ISM Services (May), trade balance (April) and nonfarm payroll (May). Investors will also monitor China's manufacturing and services PMIs (May) and Europe's services PMIs (May).
Geopolitical watch:
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) carried out a massive drone attack deep inside Russia on June 1, which reportedly hit 41 Russian aircrafts. Both the countries concluded their latest peace talks in Istanbul on June 2; however, peace prospects remain dim.
US Dollar Index and yields:
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index was at 98.71, down nearly 0.60% on the day, lowest since April 2022 barring April 2024 --reciprocal tariff sell-off period. Big investments cutting their Dollar Index forecasts is also weighing on the Greenback.
Ten-year US yields and 30-year US yields respectively at 4.44% and 4.9781% were up by 0.90% on the day.
Gold price Outlook :
A close above $3,372 will be quite positive for the metal. Considering the ongoing US-China tension and weakness in the US Dollar Index, it is advisable to buy the dips with stop loss below $3,325/$3300.
Worsening geopolitical situation and further weakness in the US Dollar Index may help the yellow metal test the psychological resistance at $3400, followed by possible tests of next resistance levels at $3414/$3435. Traders need to monitor the evolving China-US trade situation to minimize their risks.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Gold Performance:
Following a weekly loss of 2.02% in the week ending May 30, spot gold prices are sharply higher this week due to renewed safe haven demand as US-China and other geopolitical concerns come to the fore.
On Monday, China accused the US of violating the US-China trade truce as the US imposed further chip technology curbs. Last week, the US said that it will revoke visas for Chinese students who relate to the Chinese Communist Party or are studying in critical fields. The US Administration also barred the export of critical US jet engine parts and technology to China. It plans to broaden restrictions on China’s tech sector with new regulations to capture subsidiaries of companies under US curbs as well.
China's slow approval for rare earth exports is being cited as the cause behind US's actions against China.
Gold Data roundup:
US data released Monday were slightly weaker than expected. ISM manufacturing came in at 48.50 Vs the forecast of 49.50 as the manufacturing sector contracted for the third straight month on tariff uncertainties. ISM's Import component slumped to a 16-year low, while the export gauge fell to the lowest level in five years. Contraction spending in April contracted by 0.4% as against the forecast of a 0.2% expansion.
The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI (May) at 49.40 matched the estimate in its final reading, while the UK's manufacturing PMI at 46.40 beat the estimate of 45.10.
Gold ETF:
Total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 88.508Moz as of May 30. Holdings recorded first weekly inflow after five straight weeks of outflows as holdings are up 6.82% YTD.
Upcoming data and events:
The European Central Bank will deliver its monetary policy on June 5 wherein the Central Bank is expected to cut the key rates by 25 bps-- its eighth rate cut since the Bank embarked on its rate cutting spree in June 2024.
Major US data to be released ahead in this week include JOLTs job openings (April), ADP employment change (May), ISM Services (May), trade balance (April) and nonfarm payroll (May). Investors will also monitor China's manufacturing and services PMIs (May) and Europe's services PMIs (May).
Geopolitical watch:
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) carried out a massive drone attack deep inside Russia on June 1, which reportedly hit 41 Russian aircrafts. Both the countries concluded their latest peace talks in Istanbul on June 2; however, peace prospects remain dim.
US Dollar Index and yields:
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index was at 98.71, down nearly 0.60% on the day, lowest since April 2022 barring April 2024 --reciprocal tariff sell-off period. Big investments cutting their Dollar Index forecasts is also weighing on the Greenback.
Ten-year US yields and 30-year US yields respectively at 4.44% and 4.9781% were up by 0.90% on the day.
Gold price Outlook :
A close above $3,372 will be quite positive for the metal. Considering the ongoing US-China tension and weakness in the US Dollar Index, it is advisable to buy the dips with stop loss below $3,325/$3300.
Worsening geopolitical situation and further weakness in the US Dollar Index may help the yellow metal test the psychological resistance at $3400, followed by possible tests of next resistance levels at $3414/$3435. Traders need to monitor the evolving China-US trade situation to minimize their risks.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
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